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Introducing the Mario Kart Wii Power Index

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kasper

kasper

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Thread Starter #21
Everything should be updated for this round of fixtures.
---
So far I've gone through EL S4, EL CUP, WL S16, EL S3 and I'm now half way through WL S15.

I think I'll go through all of the WL/EL data before I merge it with MKWPI. It looks like most of the teams in MKPS have participated in previous seasons which is great to see.

I'll make post at a later date explaining my methodology.
 
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kasper

kasper

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Thread Starter #22
It's been a while since I've last made a post on here - the project is not dead! I'm almost done going through all the data from WL, EL and ITL. I'll make that spreadsheet public once I'm all done for full t r a n s p a r e n c y.

To take Avail as an example, their first competitive appearance was in the WL preseason - their ELO level then fluctuated over the seasons until it eventually settled at 1732 ELO with their last competitive appearance before MKPS in the SFs of WL S16 D1.

This ELO level is then transferred (along with a lot of other stats) to the MKWPI spreadsheet and it functions as their base level of the MKPS era.

This has been done for 30 of the teams that participated in the Spring Split of MKPS. The other teams are completely new and have been given a base level of 1500 ELO by convention.

In conclusion, Avail are proper gamers.
 
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kasper

kasper

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Thread Starter #23
MKWPI MKPS Spring Split Review


See more here.
The MKPS Spring Split is now over and what better time to make a review of the past few weeks.

The 4 Finalists
Avail
Avail, being the most active team of the WL/EL era (171 matches!), has seen many highs and lows. Their most recent season, WL S16, was also one of their strongest - they gained an impressive 161 ELO over the course of that season. Avail managed to continue that upwards trend throughout the MKPS Spring Split.

Avail was seeded in Group G and was the clear favorite to win the group - despite their rank being a modest #7 in the community going into the first week of MKPS.

Group G was a breeze for Avail; winning all 5 matches and improving their ELO from 1715 to 1770.

Avail won convincingly over Infinite in Round 2 of the Upper Bracket and then faced Metro Wipeout, #2 ELO rank in the community at the time, in Round 3.
Avail, having just a 16% chance of winning, managed the biggest upset of the Spring Split by winning 376-356. They were now sitting at 1824 ELO which is a level they hadn't reached since WL S3 - 5 years ago.

In the semifinals, Avail would face Charged Brigade being slight favorites to win the match (1824 ELO to cB's 1737). The two teams were incredibly closely matched on the day, but Avail eventually won in arguably the most dramatic fashion that this community has seen.

Avail might have lost to Ethereal in the finals, but they still had a very succesful start to MKPS.

Ethereal
Ethereal had only participated in one season prior to MKPS: WL S12 D1 where they won 9 out of 11 matches. They entered the Spring Split at 2011 ELO which ranked them at #3 in the community behind WollywogZ and Metro Wipeout. Like Avail, they breezed through the group stages as well as round 2 and 3 of the Upper Bracket, beating Explorers of Time and Daragh in the process.

In the semifinals, they faced Kinetolic Gaming at 1929 ELO to Ethereal's 2035. Ethereal won 390-342 and surpassed WollywogZ and Metro Wipeout in the process.

In the finals, Ethereal were clear favorites (73% chance of winning) to win the Spring Split, but Avail had proven in previous week that they shouldn't be underestimated.
Ethereal lost the first match but eventually blew Avail out of the water in the third match by winning 448-284.

With this result, Ethereal cemented their placement in the ELO rankings and set a new ELO peak for the second week in a row: 2077 ELO. This is the fourth highest ELO peak of any team since the start of WL.

Can Ethereal break Charged Brigade's ELO peak of 2113 (from WL S8) and are they capable of maintaning their supreme 90% competitive match win record?

Nightfall
It was a surprise to many to see this team return after so many years of inactivity - their last period of activity was back in the International League which I am yet to gather data from. Thus, they entered MKPS with a base ELO of 1500.

Nightfall was seeded in Group B where they won 2 and lost 3. Nightfall had their work cut out for them. However, once the Bracket Stage of the Spring Split started, things started to look up. Like, a lot.

In round 2 and 3 of the Lower Bracket, Nightfall would perform some of the biggest wins of the entire Spring Split: winning by 220 vs Ascension (gaining 54 ELO) and winning by 142 vs Lightspeed (gaining 50 ELO). In just 2 weeks, Nightfall went from rank #26 to #15.

Nightfall were closer matched with Kaisers in round 4, but won regardless. Unfortunately for Nightfall, the extreme upward momentum came to a stop when they narrowly lost to Team GUN in the finals.

Despite their loss in the finals of the Lower Bracket, Nightfall still finished with the best '5 match form' of any team in MKPS - gaining an impressive 99 ELO over their last 5 matches.

Nightfall are currently at 1568 ELO (rank #16) - but I suspect we are yet to see their peak.

Team GUN
With 110 competitive matches prior to MKPS, GUN are among the most experienced teams out there. They have even enjoyed a total of 9 weeks in the Top 5 of MKW teams (around EL S2 and WL S15). However, the past couple of seasons have been so-so for Team GUN.
GUN entered MKPS with 1472 ELO - far from their peak at 1735 ELO in D1 of WL S15.

GUN was seeded in Group C and performed fairly well: winning 2 matches very convincingly vs Hispania and Team APE and putting up decent performances vs Metro Wipeout, Moonblast and Maximum Likelihood.

Like Nightfall, GUN started to hit their stride in the Bracket Stage of the Spring Split. They won round 2, 3 and 4 of the Lower Bracket and gained 71 ELO in the process.
In the finals of the Lower Bracket, they met Nightfall who had been on a similar trajectory.

The finals of the Lower Bracket was the closest matched match of MKPS so far - only 6 ELO points separated GUN and Nightfall going into the match (1603 and 1610 ELO respectively). In reality, the best of 3 match was just as close, but GUN pulled through in the end by winning the third match 381-351.

GUN finishes the Spring Split with the third best '10 match form', gaining 132 ELO over the past 10 weeks of MKPS. It would seem GUN are back on the right track.

Other stats of interest
Teams with best '5 match form' (ELO gain past 5 MKPS weeks)
Teams that finished the Spring Split particularly strong.

Teams with best '10 match form'
Teams that might have gone somewhat under the radar, but had strong performances throughout the Spring Split.

Top 10 biggest upsets of the Spring Split
  1. Avail [16%] 376 - 356 Metro Wipeout [84%] | Round 3 Upper Bracket
  2. Turtle 7eam [18%] 380 - 352 Moonblast [82%] | Round 1 Upper Bracket
  3. Turtle 7eam [19%] 375 - 357 Nightmare on 5th Avenue [81%] | W3 Group G
  4. Contingency [20%] 380 - 352 GAMT [80%] | Round 3 Lower Bracket
  5. Explorers of Time [20%] 396 - 336 GAMT [80%] | W4 Group E
  6. Daragh [21%] 370 - 362 Hurusato [79%] | Round 2 Upper Bracket
  7. World Friend [22%] 400 - 318 Nightmare on 5th Avenue 2 [78%] | W4 Group E
  8. Kinetolic Gaming [23%] 359 - 328 WollywogZ [77%] | Round 3 Upper Bracket
  9. Apocalypse 2 [26%] 381 - 351 Megavolt [74%] | W2 Group B
  10. Extend Ash [26%] 385 - 327 Kinetolic Gaming [74%] | W3 Group F
Biggest ELO gains from a match (Bracket Stage exclusively)
  1. Nightfall 472 - 252 Ascension | +54/-54 ELO | Round 2 Lower Bracket
  2. Contingency 380 - 352 GAMT | +51/-51 ELO | Round 3 Lower Bracket
  3. Nightfall 437 - 295 Lightspeed | +50/-50 ELO | Round 3 Lower Bracket
  4. Kaisers 449 - 267 Contingency | +43/-43 ELO | Losers' Final Lower Bracket
  5. Avail 376 - 356 Metro Wipeout | +40/-40 ELO | Round 3 Upper Bracket
 
Last edited:

CallumSCO

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#26
sop is getting called the most underrated team even in the power index, streak continues
 

Joeey

Takin' the B-A-T outta basement, homie.
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#27
Top 10 biggest upsets of the Spring Split
  1. Avail [15%] 376 - 356 Metro Wipeout [85%] | Round 3 Upper Bracket
  2. Turtle 7eam [18%] 380 - 352 Moonblast [82%] | Round 1 Upper Bracket
  3. Contingency [19%] 380 - 352 GAMT [81%] | Round 3 Lower Bracket
  4. Turtle 7eam [19%] 375 - 357 Nightmare on 5th Avenue [81%] | W3 Group G
  5. Explorers of Time [20%] 396 - 336 GAMT [80%] | W4 Group E
Imagine being in the top 5 upsets list twice, good way to end T7's run :)
 
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kasper

kasper

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Thread Starter #28
MKWPI MKPS Tournament 1 Review


See more here
I have changed a setting since the last time I made a review: I was experimenting with how to deal with free wins (for a while I had all free wins count as a 1-0 win) and had forgotten to revert it to 100-0.
This is why the rankings might look slightly different to what you'd expect (also the numbers I mentioned in my previous review are now outdated but should still be fairly accurate).

Notable team performances of Tournament 1

Ethereal
Ethereal had a succesful tournament once more: not much would trouble them in the early rounds as they breezed past Execute, Moonblast and Daragh and accumulating an impressive 351 points difference over those matches.

Ethereal met WollywogZ in the 4th Winner Round and had a 60% chance of winning (boosted slightly by having the host advantage). Ethereal won the match fairly comfortably by 58 pts and gained 21 ELO in the process. In the 5th Winner Round, Ethereal were up against Kinetolic Gaming and they lived up to expectations once again with a convincing win which gained them a further 17 ELO.

At this point they didn't have much else to prove - having already beat the 2nd and 3rd highest ELO rated teams in the tournament.

The Grand Final didn't provide any unexpected events either; Kinetolic Gaming had managed to fight their way back and qualify for the final, but they were dismissed once again by Ethereal.

This leaves Ethereal comfortably in the #1 spot and they now have the highest ELO peak since the beginning of WL: 2153 ELO (previously held by Charged Brigade with 2139 ELO during WL S8).

Explorers of Time
Explorers of Time is a team most will be familiar with. They were among the most active teams of the WL era with over 90 matches on record. Historically, EXO have been roaming around in the 1200-1400 ELO range, but they have now really started to hit their stride with the introduction of MKPS.
Going into MKPS, they were rated at 1358 ELO but managed to improve it to 1481 ELO by the end of Spring Split - which was their ELO peak at the time.

With the conclusion of this weekend tournament, they're now sitting pretty at 1580 ELO (#19 in community) thanks to some huge results.

Ironically, EXO were immediately knocked out of the Winner Bracket by Moonblast (248-240). Given that EXO were only given a 30% chance of winning this matchup, they certainly gave Moonblast a run for their money. However, EXO wouldn't let this discourage them.

They followed up with a significant win over Execute (287-183) - but what followed would be even more impressive.

EXO won the next 3 matches in a row being major underdogs in all 3:
  1. Explorers of Time 246-242 Phantasmagoria (30% chance of winning)
  2. Explorers of Time 262-226 Infinite (36% chance of winning)
  3. Explorers of Time 262-218 Charged Brigade (26% chance of winning)
Unfortunately for EXO, the fun would end with a loss to Extend Ash (having a 31% chance of winning).
Regardless, they gained a total of 99 ELO over the tournament which is only bested by Ethereal, finally broke the 1500 ELO threshold and produced some of the biggest upsets of the tournament.

In addition, their 10 match form is quite the sight:


Apocalypse
Apocalypse is another team that have been around for several years. Apocalypse's peak in the WL era was in their first WL season - in WL S10 D3 where they peaked at 1654 ELO. Since then, they've had 3 consecutive seasons in the 1200-1350 ELO range (WL S14 and 15 and ITL Cup 2), but after that things started to look up.
Apocalypse have enjoyed a gentle upwards trajectory starting around WL S16 that have carried over to MKPS (even extending to Apocalypse 2).

This has been particularly apparent in this weekend tournament where they had a great run - ending with a defeat to WollywogZ in Loser Round 6.
Nevertheless, their run up until that point featured good results like a 268-220 victory vs Metro Wipeout 2 (gaining them 25 ELO) and, most notably, a win against Avail (the 2nd biggest upset of the tournament which increased their ELO by 30).

Currently, Apocalypse are at 1633 ELO - if the next tournament is kind to them, they could feasibly break their 3 year old ELO peak.

Biggest upsets

  1. Vellichor [18%] 246 - 242 WollywogZ [82%] | Loser Round 7
  2. Apocalypse [20%] 245 - 243 Avail [80%] | Loser Round 5
  3. L7 [25%] 251 - 237 In$ane [75%] | Winner Round 1
  4. Regicide [26%] 254 - 234 Resurrection [74%] | Loser Round 2
  5. Explorers of Time [26%] 262 - 218 Charged Brigade [74%] | Loser Round 4
  6. Explorers of Time [30%] 246 - 242 Phantasmagoria [70%] | Loser Round 2
  7. Apocalypse 2 [32%] 272 - 204 Team GUN [68%] | Loser Round 2
 

Sky9

You Have Failed Again, I See.
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#30
Apocalypse 1 after that Av Win
And now it's time for us to lose all of our Elo in the next tournament because of me bagging.
 

Gerogio

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Jun 29, 2018
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Perth, WA
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GAMT
#31
Was informed in the GAMT chat that we were top20. Thinking this was an achievement i logged in just to see we are behind the library, multiple american libraries and a clan named after an Irish golf wanker.

Sort it out lads

Update: No sign of GUN, oh deary me Nicolas
 
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